-*DTLA

Here’s something that this blog’s real estate researcher, Stephen Friday, should look into and hopefully do a story on:

Union Lofts was listed as being around 17% leased 5 months ago. More recently, it was publicized as being 21% occupied today. That means the building has attracted only enough renters over 5 or so months to change the occupancy rate by 4%. Or about 10% per year, give or take a few percentage points.

If that trend doesn’t get any faster, or, worse, if it gets even slower, it will take at least another 8 years to fill up the Union Lofts.

I hope my math, assumptions or estimates are wrong.

Compare that with the corny, Mediterranean-looking apartment buildings that have risen west of the 110 and at the corner of Figueroa St and Chavez Blvd. Their Internet sales sites indicate very few of their apartments are available for rent at the moment.

Is it possible those apartments have moved quite quickly while another group of rental housing like at the Union hasn’t? If so, what does this mean for the owners of the Union? For the owners of other new or adaptive housing projects in the area?

We all know the pace of selling condos has dropped noticeably over the past year or more. If the same thing is happening to rentals, what impact will that have on the turnaround of downtown?

The more ambitious projects located in the least gentrified areas of downtown will be at risk over the next 2-3 years. I hope Muerelo can keep building 717. I doubt he will be build any more towers for a very long time with the way his stock prices have gone. Also, union is not leasing nearly as quickly as he originally anticipated I bet. And at 550,000/unit in development costs, he is in a bit of trouble.

Anyhow, it will be a little rocky for awhile, but over time, all will be well.

Hal and Bert do not deserve such criticism. Hal, through the years has probably brought thousands of people to live downtown. And, he’s been the biggest supporter for bringing more neighborhood amenities, while working to keep the soul of Downtown alive.

Bert, through ArtWalk, his gallery, and his perseverance is one of the reason’s why Downtown works, and a shining example of how small businesses are the key to downtown’s renaissance.

Barry - for as much as people complain…at least the buildings aren’t sitting vacant. I can’t complain much either…just moved into SB Manhattan.

Until a skilled city planning commission steps up and makes some tough decisions about how best to plan a community that actually serves the community, downtown will be “developed” by those motivated primarily by profit and propaganda. People like Barry Shy and his poorly “rehabilitated” over-priced rental buildings. Bert Green and his throughly average gallery, and shills like Hal Bastian who sing the praises of granite countertops for a paycheck.

Watch more projects like the Union restaurant crumble in the next year, and more fabulous once-condo projects hang $99 move-in special signs, handing out leases to anyone capable of signing their name(s).

I hope Muerelo weathers this credit crunch. His company has lost quite a bit of money over the last year.